Friday, 11 September 2015

The Conflict in Ukraine: a Historical Perspective

The situation in Ukraine is constantly evolving. And for a better understanding the historical roots of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, I turned to Lubomyr Hajda, the associate director of the Harvard Ukrainian Institute.
Hajda, a historian, serves on the institutes executive committee and editorial board. His research interests focus on early modern Ukrainian history and Ukrainian-Turkish relations.

Current events in Ukraine seem to change on a weekly, if not daily basis. How did this crisis begin?

Ukraine protest
Image courtesy of snamess via flickr. Image was slightly
It began when the Ukrainian government decided not to sign the agreement with the European Union back in the fall of 2013. This was not just a trade agreement, but also a political agreement that committed Ukraine to adhere to certain European values and principles.
From there the crisis moved very quickly to corruption and regime change. The demonstrations happened in waves, and started primarily in Kiev. Most of the protestors were students and young people, although other regions were represented as well.
For these protestors, it was
an opportunity to fight corruption.

Much of the current news has shifted focus to Russia’s presence in Crimea. What is happening in the rest of Ukraine? Are people still protesting?

The meetings in Kiev have continued but no longer as demonstrations. People have come out to support the new government, but they also want to keep it in check. These activists don’t want to delegate all power to the politicians, but want their voices heard in the discussion. Men are volunteering to enter military self-defense units.
In the western part of the country, things have quieted down. With the fall of President Yanukovych, the East has become more disoriented, because he was their leader. There have been a few deaths in the eastern cities during this conflict.

Ukraine has a history of political and cultural divide, with the West leaning more toward Europe and the East leaning toward Russia. Can you put this divide into historical context?

Image courtesy of isriya via flickr. Image was slightly
First of all, I would not overemphasize the divide. There are differences, but any large country with diverse regions will have differences—this is only natural.
That said, there are many regions in Ukraine. Scholars may divide them differently, and some may organize them into seven or eight regions (or more).
Let’s consider three basic regions:
  1. The center, including Kiev. This large swath is what one thinks of historically as Ukraine. Influences include Christianity from the Byzantine Empire and the early Slavic alphabet, which are reference points for Ukrainian identity.

    Around the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, this area was most affected by the frontier military society called the Cossacks (eastern Slavs). This area was briefly under the rule of Poland and Lithuania, and was gradually taken piecemeal by Russia by the end of the eighteenth century.
  2. The west is a much smaller region. It shares many religious and linguistic influences with the center. Yet for a long period of time (from the thirteenth to mid-eighteenth centuries), it was controlled by Poland.

    Instead of frontier-type development, it was influenced by Polish language, culture, and Roman Catholicism. After Poland dissolved it was taken over by the Austrian Empire in the nineteenth century, which meant one could travel to Italy without crossing any international boundaries. This strengthened its connection to Europe.
  3. The southeast is the third region. Asian nomads migrated to this Steppe, or flat grassland, and the Slavs expanded into this area in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. This region has very little in common with the West. In the nineteenth century, industry developed widely and urbanizes the area, attracting Russians.
The land’s natural features, plus the history and the economic development, all produce these different layers. When you put all this together, you get a kaleidoscope of experiences.

So why did Russia recently annex Crimea?

This is a complex topic, and I will try to simplify without oversimplifying. Of course there are variations in beliefs, and Russians don’t all think the same way.
In general, though, Russian understanding is often shaped by nineteenth-century Russian historians—before Ukraine became a modern nation. These historians created a model that has Russian history beginning in Kiev. After all, many Ukrainians (except for those in the West) came under the rule of Russia over the last few centuries.
For many Russians, Kiev is in a foreign country. It’s a historical misunderstanding to have it belong to Ukraine. It’s a bizarre notion that the 1991 map shows Ukraine no longer in Russia. So to many Russians, annexing Crimea is simply repairing a historical wrong.
It’s very difficult for many Russians to disentangle their own history from Ukraine’s and acknowledge the equality and legitimacy of the Ukrainian culture alongside their own.
Many Ukrainians have adopted this Russian mentality as their own too. They want to be urban and sophisticated, learn Russian, and drop their Ukrainian accent.
There is a whole spectrum of attitudes, identities, and relationships among Ukrainians. Some are fervent nationalists, and some feel they are somehow under the wrong influences and would like to be Russians themselves. And of course there is everything in between.

What will happen next?

As always, there is no consensus about what will happen next. The population in Crimea is mixed, with Tatars (Turkic ethnic groups), Ukrainians, and Russians all living together. It is unclear how Russia is going to handle Crimea, given the shifting demographics.
There is concern that Russia will move into eastern Ukraine (where there still exist confrontations and provocations), though Putin has said he isn’t interested. No one knows.

How does this crisis affect the rest of the world?

When Ukraine became independent in 1991, it inherited a nuclear arsenal from the Soviet Union, which made it the fourth largest nuclear power in the world. After much persuasion from western countries, in 1994 Ukraine gave up these weapons, and they were removed from the country.
In return, Ukraine was reassured by the leaders of the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom of its security, sovereignty, and the inviolability of its borders. Russia has invaded Crimea, but the United States and the United Kingdom are still committed to this promise.
Of course, promises may be broken without much reaction. But this may spark growing concerns about countries not developing nuclear weapons, which may have grave implications for global security.
The next steps are still unclear—we must wait and see.

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